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This research aims at determining the best method to forecast the company s production level, as well as finding out the economically efficient amount of raw materials for the company to order, and the best delivery routes for its products, especially spring bed type The company also has to order an economical amount of raw materials and choose shipping as a means of distributing its products to the location specified in this study.
Their address is: Jl. Syahdan No. Every company will be striving to enhance their productivity and make all type of costs efficient in order to win superiority. The existence of a similar company or the emergence of a new competitor is one of the threatening factors which could lead to the fall, and maybe the destruction, of a company. Therefore, in order for a company to survive and stay away from destruction, various methods are needed so as not to be swayed by both its old and new competitors.
One way is to forecast consumer demand. This is important because effective consumer demand forecasting would affect a company s profitability by the means of avoiding stockpiling. In some industrial manufacturing companies, including the company studied in this paper, inventory planning systems become one of the most important factors in meeting customer needs timely and in accordance with demand, as consumer demand does not always cover a company s level of inventory capacity and as a result, the company s profit declines or it may not even make any profit at all.
In order for the production activities to run properly, there is a need for communication between the production department and the inventory department. The latter manages raw materials inventory, half-finished goods inventory, finished goods inventory and other kinds of inventory. Therefore the inventory department must possess the ability to calculate or forecast inventory levels to prevent stock-out in times of need or avoid stock excess before customers place orders.
To overcome this problem, a company must know which inventory management techniques suit it best. Aditama is engaged in the manufacture of spring beds under the brand name Airland. It has a plant which is located in Tangerang. All this time it has been using a simple distribution system and often there is excess inventory or inventory shortage, which brings unfavorable impacts to the company.
This study recommends using a system of demand capacity forecasting or planning for the next period so that the company is able to meet customer demand. Calculating Forecast Errors There are several commonly used methods to calculate forecast errors Heizer and Render, These methods can be used to compare different forecasting models, as well as to oversee the forecasting process itself to ensure that it goes well.
This value is calculated by dividing the sum of the absolute value of forecast errors with the number of periods n. MSE is the average squared differences between the observed and predicted values.
The drawback of using the MSE is that it tends to accentuate large deviations due to the squared term. To avoid this problem, we can use MAPE, which is the average of the absolute difference between the observed and predicted values, ex-. Raw Materials Definition According to Assauri , p , raw materials are the tangible goods used in a production process.
The goods can be acquired from natural resources or purchased from suppliers or any companies producing the raw materials used by certain factories. Those factories would process the materials which, after undergoing a couple of processes, are expected to turn into finished goods. According to Narafin , p. Raw materials are the main materials acting as the primary component of a product. Based on these definitions, we can conclude that raw materials are the materials acquired from natural resources or bought from suppliers to produce goods and services in a production process..
For instance, a company s basic needs during a year amount to 12, tons in total. Issues regarding inventory in fact consist of two questions how many items to order and how much time should be taken between orders which play a part in minimizing costs. This possibility may come true if: 1. The quantities of raw materials used in the production process are greater than the quantities previously predicted. It means that there is uncertainty in material usage.
The raw materials purchase or order does not arrive on time delayed , meaning that the expected lead time cannot be fulfilled. Decision Tree Definition. According to Heizer and Reinder , a decision tree is a graphical display of the decision process that indicates decision alternatives, states of nature and their respective 4. According to Nahmias , a decision tree is a visual model created to simplify a rational decision-making process.
Therefore, a decision chart consists of decision nodes and branch nodes.. According to Narafin , a decision tree is a structural tree, every node in which represents an attribute which has been tested, and each branch is derived from the division of the entire test results.
The leaf nodes represent certain class groups. The top-level node of a decision tree is the root node which is usually an attribute that has the greatest influence on a particular class.
In general, a decision tree uses top-down search strategy to find a solution. In the process of classifying unknown data, the attribute values will be tested by tracing the tree from the root nodes all the way to the end nodes the leaf nodes and then the new particular datum will be classified as a belonging to a certain class.
Thus, we may conclude that a decision tree is a tool being used in a decision making process, despite various alternatives readily available, done in a structured, gradual and rational manner.
Decision Tree Analysis Regardless of the complexity of a decision or how advanced the techniques used in analyzing that decision are, every decision maker is faced with various alternatives and state of nature.
When we create a decision tree, make sure that every alternative and state of nature are in the right and logical place and be sure to include all possible alternatives and state of nature. The notations used are:. Glossary: a. Alternatives - an action or strategy that can be chosen by a decision maker. State of nature - an event or situation in which a decision maker has little or no control.. Symbols used in a decision tree: : A decision point where there is one or more alternative available to be chosen.
Analyzing problem using a decision tree consists of five steps: 1. Define the problem. Draw the decision tree. Determine the probabilities for the states of nature. Estimate the payoffs for each possible combination of decision alternative and state of nature. Solve the problem by calculating the EMV of each state of nature.
This is done backwards starting from the right side of the tree all the way to the left side where the decision nodes are. Forecasting Analysis Optimization criterion: The main variable in this study is to forecast customer demand for spring bed type This demand acts as one of the variables used in analyzing product demand forecast.
In this case, the variables are data on product demand from January to September which then are used to forecast demand for the month of October Inventory Control Optimization criterion: Ordering - this variable is used to find out the number of products ordered by associating it with the number of primary raw materials needed steel wires to produce spring beds type This is done in order to meet customer demand and manufacturing process stability..
Making decision on delivery route Decision Tree Optimization Criterion: This variable acts a support variable used in deciding which delivery route is appropriate to distribute spring beds type There are two available alternative routes, namely land routes and sea routes.
In addition, costs are the determining factors in choosing the shipping company responsible for delivering goods. Alternative Solutions Development Production quality standards are determined by: 1. Forecasting is based on the historical data on the demand level of spring beds type , using the data to estimate demand for the month of October and to suggest the methods the company should use. Inventory is analyzed by using the help of QM for Windows software.
Those are later used to determine the inventory level of steel wires, which are the raw materials needed for spring beds manufacturing. Deciding the best delivery route can be done by using the Decision Tree method. It indicates which route and shipping company are best for sending goods to customers.
Research Type and Method The research type used is problem solving research: deep research into a particular object within a certain range of time while thoroughly seeing the big picture of its production environment and past condition.
The research method used is descriptive research. Once collected, the data relevant to the problems studied would be processed, interpreted and analyzed to identify existing problems and give a rough idea of how to solve those problems. The data type can be both quantitative and qualitative. Implications of the Selected Solution The implications of the selected solution expected to be realized from this study are:. To overcome the problem of projecting demand for spring beds type , we use forecasting analysis to find out the demand condition for the next period or month..
To overcome the company s inventory problem, we use EOQ analysis, which will display the new condition of the company s raw materials inventory and reserve, to tackle excessive lead times and soaring customer demand.. To determine the best delivery routes between two existing alternatives land route and sea route offered by various shipping companies, we use Decision Tree to help the company make the best cost-minimization decision.
We suggest that the company use the Linear Regression method to estimate its future demand level of spring beds type using manual and QM for Windows calculations. Steel Wires Inventory The second thing to do after forecasting product demand level is to calculate inventory level. This is very important for the company to keep its production going and meet customer demand. That amount should be divided into 3.
A reorder is made when the quantity of the steel wires falls below tons Reorder Point. The company needs as many as 1, kg or tons of steel wires for the spring beds type s daily production needs.
Total costs incurred to meet steel wires needs for the manufactures of spring bed type are 3,,, IDR, while the costs of the steel wires alone are 3,,, IDR. Decision Tree The company also has to send its products, spring beds type , to Sulawesi. In its distribution process, two alternative routes are used, namely land route and sea route.
Three shipping companies are considered for delivering them, all of which provide land and sea routes. The issue that matters here is to find the lowest spring bed delivery costs to the cities in Sulawesi. Each shipping company charges different fees for different routes. Therefore, we need to consider both the good and bad economic values which arise from the assumption.
The result of the calculations can be seen in the table below. These manual calculations, which are done by the author, show the same results as those which resulted from using QM for Windows software. Diagram 1: Decision Tree of Delivery Routes Source: Data process result, Implications of the Research Based on the calculations intended to generate possible solutions to the existing problems, we can see that the company had better use linear regression method to forecast the demand level of spring beds type Projected demand for the month of October , as shown by the linear regression method, is 1, units.
This method is chosen as it has the smallest rate of MAD and MSE and 16, respectively among all the six methods computed.
Quality Initiatives???? Menyeimbangkan aliran dalam proses Identifikasi akar-akar penyebab dari value stream masalah Reduksi cycle time Sangat penting untuk meningkatkan produktivitas Menciptakan output proses yang seragam bebas cacat Sangat penting untuk meningkatkan kapabilitas proses dan kualitas produk. What Is Lean Six Sigma? Quality Q????????? Cost C????????? Jawab Biaya Rp Manfaat Rp. Download for free Report this document.
View My Stats. Gaspersz, Vincent. Production Planning and Inventory Control. Jakarta: PT. Gramedia Pustaka Umum. Indroprasto, Erma Suryani.
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This research aims at determining the best method to forecast the company s production level, as well as finding out the economically efficient amount of raw materials for the company to order, and the best delivery routes for its products, especially spring bed type The company also has to order an economical amount of raw materials and choose shipping as a means of distributing its products to the location specified in this study. Their address is: Jl. Syahdan No. Every company will be striving to enhance their productivity and make all type of costs efficient in order to win superiority.
Quality Initiatives???? Menyeimbangkan aliran dalam proses Identifikasi akar-akar penyebab dari value stream masalah Reduksi cycle time Sangat penting untuk meningkatkan produktivitas Menciptakan output proses yang seragam bebas cacat Sangat penting untuk meningkatkan kapabilitas proses dan kualitas produk. What Is Lean Six Sigma? Quality Q?????????
List of ebooks and manuels about Production planning and inventory control vincent gaspersz pdf free. Production Planning and Inventory Control. Chase, Jacobs and Aquilano.
Trijaya Abadi is an industry that produces cement, and make various innovations by producing instant cement. It is often the case with errors in doing the forecasting is if the amount of production is produced too much while the demand is small it will cause losses for the company as well as vice versa if the demand a lot while the production will be a bit disappointment of consumers resulting in the company losing konsakuya. The method used for forecasting in this research is Exponential Smoothing Holt-Winters method with multiplyative seasonal method and additive seasonal method. The alpha, beta and gamma values used are 0.
The results of this study shows : 1 Expected return value of yearly average with CAPM method period — is inclined fluctuation with the result that the hypothesis was rejected. The conclusion of this study is : 1 The result shown expected return at the mining firms by sector in period — is inclined fluctuationly, the reasons is CAPM use one systematic risk only that is stock value which came from the intern of the firm. Fundamentals Of Financial Management 8th Edition. USA : Cengage Learning.
tisi nebraskansforjustice.org - DAFTAR PUSTAKA Bedworth, D. Integrated Production Control System. Edisi 2. John Wiley Sons. New York. Gaspersz.
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