File Name: oil prices and inflation .zip
This paper uses an open economy DSGE model to analyse the short and long run quantitative impact of a permanent oil price increase for output and inflation in the euro area and compares the results to the predictions of other models currently in use.
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This paper analyzes the asymmetric impact of oil price changes on the economic growth of and inflation in Indonesia by using the vector autoregression VAR model for the period from Q1 to Q4. The results show that the impact of oil price changes on the gross domestic product GDP is asymmetric, as a drop in oil prices decreases the GDP, whereas an increase in oil prices does not significantly affect GDP. It is crucial for Indonesia to reduce its dependency on oil, mainly as its primary source of revenue, and also consider utilizing more sources of renewable energy. At the same time, the effects of both the positive and negative changes in oil prices are found to be not statistically significant to inflation. The lack of impact of oil price changes on inflation can explain by the implementation of the fuel price subsidy in Indonesia.
This study aims to examine the effect of crude oil prices on inflation, interest rates, and economic growth in Indonesia. The data used are quarterly time series data on crude oil, interest rates, inflation, and Indonesia's economic growth from the first quarter of year to the second quarter of year The results of data analysis reveal that 1 there are no long-run and short-run effects of crude oil prices on inflation, 2 there are long-run and short-run effects of crude oil prices to the interest rate. Keywords : crude oil prices, interest rate, inflation, economic growth, ARDL model. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy. Open Journal Systems. Journal Help.
Another Pass-Through Bites the Dust? This paper gathers stylized facts on the evolution of the pass-through of changes in oil prices to general inflation for a broad number of countries so that this decline in the impact of oil price hikes can be quantified and various hypotheses that might explain it can be evaluated. The current surge in oil prices has also been associated with small effects on output. We find suggestive evidence that can explain both this association with output and the reduced impact on inflation. We show that a decline in the exchange rate pass-through, a reduction in the use of oil per unit of GDP, and a macroeconomic environment characterized by low inflation which, among other things, has limited the need for reactive monetary policy help to explain the relatively mild effects of the current oil shock on the global economy.
What a daunting question! With oil prices increasing rapidly in the recent past, it is hard not to wonder what has caused it and just what effect it might have on the rest of the economy. Let me begin by discussing the evolution of oil prices over time. Figure 1 shows the history of the price of oil since the early s. The price shown is the monthly average spot price of a barrel of West Texas intermediate crude oil, measured in U.
Бринкерхофф посмотрел на мониторы, занимавшие едва ли не всю стену перед ее столом. На каждом из них красовалась печать АНБ. - Хочешь посмотреть, чем занимаются люди в шифровалке? - спросил он, заметно нервничая. - Вовсе нет, - ответила Мидж. - Хотела бы, но шифровалка недоступна взору Большого Брата.
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