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- Probability and Measure Theory Robert B. Ash
- The Craft of Probabilistic Modelling
- The Craft of Probabilistic Modelling

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The fate of scientific hypotheses often relies on the ability of a computational model to explain the data, quantified in modern statistical approaches by the likelihood function. The log-likelihood is the key element for parameter estimation and model evaluation. However, the log-likelihood of complex models in fields such as computational biology and neuroscience is often intractable to compute analytically or numerically. In those cases, researchers can often only estimate the log-likelihood by comparing observed data with synthetic observations generated by model simulations. Standard techniques to approximate the likelihood via simulation either use summary statistics of the data or are at risk of producing substantial biases in the estimate. Here, we explore another method, inverse binomial sampling IBS , which can estimate the log-likelihood of an entire data set efficiently and without bias. For each observation, IBS draws samples from the simulator model until one matches the observation.

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Add to Wishlist. By: Robert B. Book Reg. Product Description Product Details This introduction to more advanced courses in probability and real analysis emphasizes the probabilistic way of thinking, rather than measure-theoretic concepts. Geared toward advanced undergraduates and graduate students, its sole prerequisite is calculus.

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